Revisiting Vehicles “of the Future”.

On June 8, 2013, I published, on my blog, Vehicles “of the Future”.

In May 2016, I published “Major Misconceptions About Autonomous Cars and Self-Driving”. It is a long text in which I used information from international websites updated at that time, with a detailed explanation of the evolution in general, the evolution of the characteristics and functioning of each piece of the set, and its conclusions at that time.

From that date until today, some technologies have progressed a lot:

The design and types of batteries, lighter, which leads to lower weight with a consequent reduction in consumption; of high duration and today without creating risks of fire and explosion; and allow cars to achieve great autonomy between two loads.

The introduction of Technology and the Internet of Things led cars to be a set mounted on integrated circuit platforms, with almost all automated functions, location sensors and 360-degree accurate time-space-velocity measurement created the conditions for the self-driving, today in advanced tests; will likely reach regulated and approved self-driving. Duplicate systems will prevent serious and perhaps deadly failures.

For the rest, the data I used to demystify the fallacy that they reduce greenhouse gas emissions and environmental problems remain practically the same:

• World oil consumption rose until the beginning of the pandemic and dropped slightly from 88 MM barrels per day to 85 MM.

• Annual coal consumption — increased from 8 billion tonnes to just over 8.5 billion.

All the other arguments are valid and the negative points have increased in importance, such as the cost of electricity for the consumer, the value of investments in energy generation, transmission and distribution, in charging station networks.

And the increase in the production of electric cars has raised a new obstacle: will it be possible to manufacture enough batteries to increase their production?

See https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02222-1\

They just aren’t the result of conspiracy theories anymore and are better than the failed attempt at hybrid cars.

Yes, electric cars are a reality today, they already drive in the millions and… increase the global emission of pollution and unwanted gases; they only change them from the place of use of the car to greater volumes in the losses in cables and wires throughout the generation to the consumer.

Its existence, today and in more than two decades at most, is the result of the current and increased capacity of energy generation, of which only 37% of global electricity production comes from low-carbon sources.

And, from https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy, we have the value and distribution of the use of renewable sources:

From which I transcribe the comment:

“We often hear about the rapid growth of renewable technologies in media reports. But how much impact has this growth had on our energy systems?

In this interactive graph, we see the portion of primary energy consumption that came from renewable technologies — the combination of hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tidal and modern biofuels [traditional biomass — which can be an important energy source in low-income settings are not included].

Note that this data is based on the primary energy calculated by the “replacement method”, which attempts to correct inefficiencies in fossil fuel production. It does this by converting non-fossil fuel sources into their “input equivalents”: the amount of primary energy it would take to produce the same amount of energy if it came from fossil fuels. We examine this adjustment in more detail here.

In 2019, only about 11% of global primary energy came from renewable technologies.”

The UN’s “Race to Zero” (Zero Emission) Campaign intended us to achieve zero pollutant production by 2050.

In my view, the most developed nations with the highest GDP (and the ones most responsible for the production of greenhouse gases) may come close to this target; but that it is almost impossible for nations with a GDP per capita of less than USD 10,000 equivalent to achieving this unless it is possible — but difficult — to the help the highly developed.

It seems clear to me, therefore, that growth in the production of electric vehicles will peak in the next ten years and decline until we can have a share of 50% or more from renewable electric energy sources.

On top of that, the ethical problems are not resolved.

In the article The Ethics of Self-Driving Cars

https://towardsdatascience.com/the-ethics-of-self-driving-cars-efaaaaf9e320

The author concludes:

“For me, the positives outweigh the negatives for autonomous cars. First of all, autonomous cars are created by some of the most innovative and educated people in society today. The inventors intended to create a better society for drivers and the planet. Furthermore, autonomous cars have proven to be significantly safer than having a real driver; this has been demonstrated by several studies and data collected from them. In the long run, autonomous cars will increase the efficiency and productivity of people around the world. For more people to feel comfortable with self-driving cars, companies and self-employed vehicle owners must understand that they are responsible for the safety of all interested parties. Risk management techniques can be used to quantify probabilistic risk transparently and flexibly. To create ethical vehicles, developers must continue to learn from past experiences in risk management and morally challenging situations.

Permitting autonomous cars will satisfy the expectations and values ​​of the enthusiasts, drivers and companies that produce them. As science and technology advance, it is inevitable that more solutions will be developed. In the case of the car that drives alone, this creates opportunity and damage. Human beings will need to create tools, such as rules and regulations, to protect themselves. As more laws and regulations will be developed regarding autonomous cars, they will work to balance the ethics and economics of autonomous cars.”

The excerpt in italic shows an internal contradiction in it, and unacceptable if we consider the entire document; “Balance the ethics and the economy”?

It is a seemingly intractable problem.